Sunday, January 21, 2018

Gen Z backing a coup against Trump?

tcjfs slips a black pill into the Gen Z martini. From Survey Monkey:


Reuters-Ipsos similarly shows less satisfaction with Trump among younger Republicans than among older cohorts (N = 9,124):


R-I is suboptimal in that it doesn't allow 18-24 year-olds--that is, actual Gen Zs--to be separated out from millennials. Those currently aged 25-34 represent, as best I can tell, peak SJWism. The cresting was apparent in the Alabama Senate race, for example (keep in mind that the 18-24 cohort is the least white one--Moore won big among white Zs, but just barely if at all among white millennials):


It's conceivable that this is an indication, at least in part, of less patience among younger Republicans than among older ones. My sense is it is much more a case of younger Trump voters accusing the god-emperor of being co-opted by the tribe into pushing a bellicose Israel-First foreign policy, compromised by the deep state, cucking on this or that, etc than it is older Trump voters doing so. President Trump is closer to GOPe business-as-usual than candidate Trump was. 

A couple of potentially contrasting data points to keep in mind, in any case.

Saturday, January 20, 2018

American misandry!

From Reuters-Ipsos, the percentages of people, by selected demographic characteristics, who think America would be better off with fewer men more women in politics. "Don't know" responses are excluded (N = 5,250):


In a zero-sum game like politics, when one group gains power it is necessarily at the expense of another group. Normal people tend not to think beyond obvious first-order effects, though. The logical conclusion of a response favoring more women in politics is that said response simultaneously--and necessarily--favors fewer men in politics.

It's both a reminder of how much influence wording can have on polling results and also how Western countries have managed to promise ever increasing future benefits while running national debts and unfunded liabilities to the tune of infinity trillion dollars.

Overall, 7% of respondents said that "America would be worse off with more women in politics". Among Trump-voting white men over the age of 35, 14% said as much. In what is becoming a recurring pattern, young white MAGAMEN are dissenting from the anti-male #MeToo feminization that has settled over our sick civilization at rates unmatched by any other segment of the population. Some 28% of Trump-voting white men under the age of 35 asserted that more women in politics is bad for America:


The sample size wasn't quite large enough to show results for Trump-voting white men under 30, but for all Trump-voting men under 30, it was a couple ticks higher still, at 30% saying America would be worse off with more women in politics. Here's to yet another encouraging sign from Gen Z's fine young white men!

Friday, January 19, 2018

Modest brown slowdown

++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board than actually exists in terms of total births. There was a 0.9% decline in the absolute number of births between 2015 and 2016.

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The following table and graph show the change in Hispanic births from 2015 to 2016, by state (for whites see here and for blacks see here). Mixed-race births are not included in these counts:

State%▲
1) West Virginia+14.5
2) South Dakota+13.4
3) New Hampshire+9.1
4) Alabama+6.7
5) Ohio+6.4
6) Kentucky+4.5
7) Connecticut+4.2
8) South Carolina+3.9
9) Mississippi+3.3
10) Washington+2.9
11) Florida+2.8
12) Massachusetts+2.7
13) Tennessee+2.7
14) Rhode Island+2.6
15) Missouri+2.3
16) Colorado+2.1
17) Pennsylvania+2.1
18) Oklahoma+2.0
19) Iowa+1.5
20) District of Columbia+1.5
21) North Carolina+1.5
22) Arkansas+1.4
23) Nevada+1.3
24) Utah+1.1
25) Maryland+1.1
26) Wyoming+1.0
27) North Dakota+0.9
28) Virginia+0.8
29) Georgia+0.7
30) Nebraska+0.7
31) Michigan+0.5
32) Minnesota+0.4
33) Alaska+0.1
34) Kansas+0.0
35) Hawaii(0.3)
36) Oregon(0.6)
United States(0.7)
37) Idaho(0.8)
38) Arizona(0.9)
39) Wisconsin(1.5)
40) Texas(1.8)
41) New York(2.0)
42) California(2.3)
43) Indiana(2.5)
44) Louisiana(2.7)
45) New Jersey(2.8)
46) Vermont(2.9)
47) Illinois(3.7)
48) Montana(4.4)
49) Maine(5.2)
50) New Mexico(6.1)
51) Delaware(6.6)

Courtesy

Most states saw a year-over-year increase, but nationally the number of Hispanic births in 2016 declined modestly from 2015 on account of both California and Texas, together containing nearly half the country's total Hispanic population, experiencing larger birth declines than the rest of the US.

A couple of noticeable trends are visible--fewer births in the highly Hispanic Southwest and more births in the South. While white and black births in Alaska and Hawaii are in free fall, Hispanic births are steady in the country's non-contiguous states.

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

The dark decline

++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board than actually exists in terms of total births. There was a 0.9% decline in the absolute number of births between 2015 and 2016.

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The following table and graph show the change in non-Hispanic black births from 2015 to 2016, by state (for whites, see here). Mixed-race births are not included in these counts:

State%▲
1) South Dakota+10.7
2) North Dakota+6.8
3) Massachusetts+0.6
4) Connecticut+0.3
5) District of Columbia+0.1
6) Florida(1.3)
7) Iowa(1.6)
8) Georgia(2.3)
9) Texas(2.6)
10) Minnesota(3.1)
11) Alabama(3.2)
12) Mississippi(3.3)
13) Maryland(3.5)
14) Louisiana(3.8)
15) Tennessee(4.9)
16) North Carolina(5.0)
17) Delaware(5.2)
United States(5.3)
18) Nevada(5.3)
19) Indiana(5.5)
20) Virginia(5.6)
21) Illinois(5.7)
22) Ohio(5.9)
23) Michigan(6.0)
24) New York(6.4)
25) Arkansas(6.8)
26) Kentucky(7.1)
27) South Carolina(7.1)
28) Wisconsin(7.5)
29) Missouri(7.6)
30) New Jersey(9.4)
31) Idaho(9.6)
32) Pennsylvania(9.8)
33) Nebraska(10.1)
34) Arizona(10.9)
35) Maine(11.2)
36) California(11.3)
37) Oklahoma(12.0)
38) New Hampshire(12.2)
39) Kansas(12.6)
40) Colorado(12.9)
41) West Virginia(15.9)
42) Washington(16.3)
43) Rhode Island(17.8)
44) Utah(19.1)
45) Hawaii(19.9)
46) Alaska(24.4)
47) New Mexico(25.6)
48) Wyoming(27.6)
49) Oregon(29.2)
50) Montana(36.0)
51) Vermont(46.6)

Courtesy

Eighteen states show double-digit percentage decreases in births in 2016 compared to 2015. None of those states are heavily black, nor are they on their way to becoming so. Nationwide, the black fertility rate per capita is still about 20% higher than the white fertility rate is, but the gap has been narrowing for decades. At the current rate, white and black fertility will have reached parity in a couple of decades, and the total fertility rate before that. Can't wait to see the major media celebrate the elimination of that gap!

The east-west divide in changes in fecundity is even starker with black births than it is with white births. As Feryl will undoubtedly notice, the hot, swampy tropical South suits blacks.

The energy boom in the Dakotas have attracted a lot of younger people from all of the country. Americans will do jobs Americans won't do if the wages are right, and while they've receded some from their peaks a few years ago, it's a laborer's market in both those states. Black births are up considerably there.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

The unbirth of a nation

++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board than actually exists in terms of total births. There was a 0.9% decline in the absolute number of births between 2015 and 2016.

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The following table and graph show the change in non-Hispanic white births from 2015 to 2016, by state. Mixed-race births are not included in these counts:

State%▲
1) District of Columbia+3.1
2) Maine(0.6)
3) Mississippi(1.2)
4) New Jersey(1.5)
5) Utah(1.8)
6) Michigan(1.9)
7) North Carolina(2.0)
8) Wisconsin(2.1)
9) Iowa(2.1)
10) Delaware(2.3)
11) Indiana(2.3)
12) Minnesota(2.3)
13) Nebraska(2.4)
14) New Hampshire(2.5)
15) South Dakota(2.5)
16) Alabama(2.5)
17) Kentucky(2.6)
18) Louisiana(2.9)
19) Massachusetts(2.9)
20) Tennessee(2.9)
21) South Carolina(2.9)
22) New York(2.9)
23) Missouri(2.9)
24) Idaho(3.0)
25) Colorado(3.0)
26) Vermont(3.0)
27) Arkansas(3.1)
28) Florida(3.2)
29) Ohio(3.2)
30) Oregon(3.3)
31) New Mexico(3.4)
32) North Dakota(3.5)
United States(3.5)
33) Maryland(3.5)
34) Washington(3.6)
35) Illinois(3.7)
36) Georgia(3.9)
37) Virginia(3.9)
38) Pennsylvania(4.0)
39) Connecticut(4.2)
40) Kansas(4.6)
41) Texas(4.7)
42) Arizona(4.7)
43) Montana(5.0)
44) Rhode Island(5.2)
45) West Virginia(5.4)
46) California(6.3)
47) Nevada(6.8)
48) Wyoming(7.0)
49) Oklahoma(8.3)
50) Alaska(11.5)
51) Hawaii(23.9)


Only the Imperial Capital saw more white babies in 2016 than in 2015. The South and Upper Midwest are doing relatively well holding their own. The Mountain and Pacific time zones are in rough shape, with Mormon Utah managing only to be a modest exception. The writing is on the wall for Arizona and then for Texas, states Trump won by 3 points and 9 points, respectively. The country's two non-contiguous states are in free fall.

As the Derb is fond of saying, numbers are of the essence. We can't rebuild our civilization with someone else's babies. If the trend swings positive in 2017--the data will be released in late Spring or early Summer--Trump will be the greatest president since at least Dwight Eisenhower.

Next we'll look at non-whites. Decline is everywhere.